Taxi Change by Distance Band

Taxi % Change

Decrease
0 – 10%
10 – 25%
25%+

NYC Congestion Pricing:
Where Does the Traffic Go?

On January 5, 2025, New York City began charging vehicles to enter Manhattan's central business district below 60th Street.

The policy aimed to reduce traffic in the most congested part of the city. But traffic doesn't just disappear — it has to go somewhere.

Scroll to explore the spatial story ↓

The Congestion Relief Zone

The tolled area covers Manhattan south of 60th Street — the densest commercial district in the Western Hemisphere.

Vehicles entering this zone are now charged a toll, with rates varying by time of day and vehicle type.

Vehicle Entries Drop Across the Board

Overall bridge & tunnel inflow
-3.25%

Comparing Jan–Apr 2025 to the same period in 2024, traffic at MTA bridges and tunnels entering the metro area fell at nearly every crossing.

CrossingChange
Verrazzano-Narrows-8.7%
Marine Parkway-8.5%
Queens Midtown Tunnel-4.8%
Throgs Neck-3.7%
RFK / Triborough-2.2%
Henry Hudson+2.6%

But Did the Traffic Disappear?

Fewer vehicles are crossing into the metro area. But what's happening to taxi and for-hire vehicle activity across the city?

To find out, we analyzed 89.9 million yellow cab trips from 2024–2025, comparing activity before and after the policy took effect.

We measured change in concentric distance bands radiating outward from the congestion zone boundary.

Activity Redistributes Outward

The pattern is clear: taxi activity didn't decrease — it shifted outward from the congestion zone.

The further from the zone boundary, the larger the increase in taxi trips.

The Boundary "Dead Zone"

Change within 0.25 miles of boundary
-1.6%

Immediately outside the toll boundary, activity actually decreased. This is the only band with a negative change.

Drivers appear to avoid the boundary fringe — too close to the toll zone for comfort, creating an avoidance buffer.

The Strongest Growth: 1–5 Miles Out

Change in the 3–5 mile band
+37%

Neighborhoods 1–5 miles from the zone absorbed the largest increases in taxi activity — up to 37% more trips than the same period last year.

These are areas like Long Island City, Williamsburg, Park Slope, and the South Bronx — transit-accessible neighborhoods just beyond the toll boundary.

Inside the Zone: A Surprise

Taxi activity inside the congestion zone
+13.3%

Counter-intuitively, taxi activity inside the congestion zone increased. With fewer private vehicles, taxis may be filling the freed-up road space.

This suggests a possible mode shift: some drivers who previously drove private cars may now be taking taxis instead.

Congestion Pricing Redistributes — It Doesn't Eliminate

The data tells a consistent story across all three sources:

Bridge and tunnel entries are down 3.25%. Taxi activity outside the zone is up 20–37%. The zone boundary creates a narrow avoidance buffer.

Congestion pricing works — but its effects ripple outward across the entire urban system. Surrounding neighborhoods absorb displaced demand, raising questions about equity and infrastructure readiness beyond the zone.

Data: NYC Yellow Taxi (TLC), MTA Bridges & Tunnels, Jan–Apr 2024 vs 2025
Tools: Python, GeoPandas, Leaflet, Chart.js